IRAQI KURDS PONDER? WITH TURKS OR THE AMERICANS?

Iraqi Kurdish leaders are debating whether they should peg their future with Turkey or with the United States as they see growing uncertainties in Iraq…According to sources close to the leadership there are two schools of thought that are clashing. One says they should rely on Turkey for their future and closely ally themselves with Ankara while opponents say Turkey is facing serious troubles and its ability to influence regional developments in weakening and thus they have to closely associate themselves with the Americans.
The supporters of strong ties with Turkey say the potentials and strength of Turkey cannot be denied and the Kurdish region of Iraq is the economic, social and even political hinterland of Turkey.They say Turkey should become a political and economic partner of the Kurds and not the "big brother" that dominates and dictates its terms on the Kurds.They also stress that Turkey is the only democratic and secular neighbor of the Iraqi Kurds who can help them in building up their system on modern grounds.Supporters of Turkey say Turks are already dominating trade and the contracting sector in the Kurdish region. Turkish contractors are doing business at the tune of one billion dollars and Turkish traders sell goods worth two billion dollars annually to the Kurdish area. They say Turkey can offer its vast potentials to the area.They also say in the future when the Kurds extract their own oil the only outlet will be through Turkey. There are also talk of building a pipeline to carry the Kurdish oil to the Turkish oil terminal of Ceyhan as well as to build a railroad from Nusaybin into Silopi and Zakho that will extend to Erbil and Suleimania. There are suggestions to link the information backbone of the Kurdish region to Turkey.The opponents of Turkey say the Turks are facing serious problems at home and abroad. Their effort to join the European Union has stalled and they are at fight with many of their neighbors. The rising nationalist fervor and the domestic debates over the election of the president has further weakened Turkey. So they say Turkey does not have much to offer to the Turks under these circumstances so the Kurds have to seek support from the Americans.There is talk of asking the Americans to set up bases in the Kurdish regions. They say the U.S. needs the Kurds in its struggle against Iran and the Syrians. It also needs their political clout in Baghdad. Supporters of Turkey say without Turkish blessing it will be practically impossible for the Americans to provide long term backing to the Kurds. In the past the Americans were regarded among the Kurdish leadership and especially on the Barzani side as unreliable. Kurds pointed out that the Americans had let the Kurds down in 1975 and in 1991 and should not be trusted.Massoud Barzani was convinced in 2002 that this time the Americans meant business and gave his full backing to the Bush administration to bring down Saddam Hussein and this was a key element in the fall of the regime in Baghdad in 2003.Since then the Iraqi Kurds and the Americans have been going through a phase of close collaboration and cooperation.This has created the impression among Kurds that the Americans will never desert them again and that the U.S. will support the Iraqi governorates run by the Kurds.The Baker-Hamilton plan to end the violence in Iraq was a wake up call for the Kurds who felt the plan was clearly against their aspirations of self rule and running their own oil industry. Bush did not adopt the plan and instead has used the Kurds to help end the violence in Baghdad by deploying their troops. But Kurds now realize that there are Americans who are still prepared to turn their backs on the Kurds…The Kurds feel they have to be prepared for the day when Bush leaves office and if the Baghdad administration collapses leaving the Kurds in the air...